A Few Thoughts about Brexit as we got the “Deal”

• The “Brexit deal” is just the withdrawal agreement. The UK and the EU still need to negotiate their future relationship which includes but not limits to regulatory alignment, immigration, security, defense and services. In other words, the negotiation on the future relationship is likely to be more complicated than the withdrawal agreement whose process has already been frustratingly lengthy.
• The UK has to spend more time negotiating with the EU in the case of Brexit than in the case of No Brexit because many things that are mentioned above are now on the table and subject to “give and take” by both sides. I am not sure that fits into the UK’s ambition of going global and striking independent trade deals with non-EU countries.
• The rally of the Pound reflects a lower risk of No-deal Brexit, not a better future of the UK-EU relationship (or UK’s relationship with the rest of the world). In other words, it reflects the change in the probability of a dreadful downside scenario. The currency market is too short-sighted to discount any upside (or lack thereof) of Brexit on the UK economy which won’t materialize until many years down the road.