If everyone in the world has access to Covid-19 vaccine in two years and life is supposed to go back to normal, what will still be permanently changed? What won’t be? And to what extent?
In the midst of a pandemic, it is relatively easy to answer the first question. People will reasonably spend more time doing online shopping, working from home and less time travelling (particularly for business reasons). For affected industries (e.g. shopping malls, airlines), consolidation is bound to happen with fewer players. The survivors arguably will have bigger market shares but won’t truly bounce back until the prospect of a vaccine becomes solid.
What won’t permanently be changed? People’s desire to consume certain services that are hard to be replaced by virtual meetings/phone calls, e.g. watching the circus, seeing a museum exhibition, listening to an orchestra. One would rather do those things in person if he is immune. Those companies suffer a lot right now but would be able to recover to pre-Covid level once the pandemic is gone.
The last question is the hardest to answer not only because we don’t know when and how the pandemic will finish but also industry consolidation can pan out in different ways. The biggest player right now is not guaranteed a survivor in the future as it may find it hard to secure liquidity during the pandemic.
liyufeili 